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Confusing Forecasting
EUMETNET - MeteoAlarm has issued a moderate snow or ice warning for Merseyside today, yet the Met Office says different, but why?
According to EUMETNET we should expect the possibility of snow showers to push further inland across:- Wales, parts of Northwest England, the West Midlands and Southwest England during Sunday evening. Along windward coasts, rain and sleet are more likely, but inland showers will fall as snow. This forecast is part of a broader Arctic blast hitting the UK, which has already seen temperatures drop to:- "-10°C in some areas and over 10 cm of snow in parts of Scotland and Northern England." This service goes on to say:- "Whilst not all locations in the warning areas will see snow, around:- 1 cm to 3 cm is expected to fall in many places by Monday morning, with the potential for:- 5 cm to 8 cm to build up in a few locations, particularly across inland and higher parts of Wales. Icy patches are likely to form widely." Oddly, the Met Office does not show the same warning, saying:- "No Warnings" in place for Merseyside today. While the Met Office has issued a:- "Yellow Warning" for snow and ice across the:- Southern half of Greater Manchester, Cheshire and Warrington, Merseyside currently remains just outside the official warning boundary. However, the UK Health Security Agency has placed the entire Northwest under an amber cold health alert until 06/01/2026, warning of a potential:- "rise in deaths" among vulnerable groups. This type of confusing forecasting is becoming more commonplace as the Met Office's detailed forecast differs from a generic alert on another app it might say:- "be aware of icy conditions for travel" for less severe weather predicted for the Merseyside area compared to other parts of the UK. This is due to weather services like EUMETNET often showing a warning for areas like Merseyside because it pulls the data it uses for the forecast from various other sources, or uses a broader regional alerts system for icy stretches, whilst the Met Office (the official source for the UK) might not have a specific, official warning (like:- Yellow, Amber, Red) for heavy snow and/or ice for the Merseyside area itself, but rather mentions:- "icy stretches" and potential isolated showers in their detailed forecast, highlighting colder conditions and the risk of slipperiness, but not widespread disruption. The Met Office system is impact based, meaning they only issue warnings when they believe the weather will cause significant disruption to travel, energy or life, whereas other apps may trigger alerts based on 100% numerical thresholds. Whilst the Met Office often issues broader, less severe alerts like the:- Yellow - "be aware" warnings for ice or snow, other platforms might overstate or show earlier alerts. If we see alerts about weather conditions, we should take notice and be more aware of local conditions, as no app or service is always 100% accurate for our weather patterns within the UK and specialist apps can sometimes be more accurate within local areas than more generic forecasts. For Met Office updates, please visit:- MetOffice.Gov.UK COMMENTS (1)
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Michael Hannover
#1
Sat, 3 January 2026
4:54 pm
I hate weather forecasts for our area. Most of the time it says rain but we get sun. It says snow and we get sun or rain. Says sun and we get rain. I preferre looking out the window or using a webcam like yours.
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